Statistical modeling in the recent JAMIA article Predicting the Adoption of Electronic Health Records by Physicians: When Will Health Care be Paperless? presents some interesting results.
The study focused on small practices (where most of our EHR adoption trouble happens) and used EHR adoption data from six previous studies to estimate potential future market penetration rates.
Based on their conservative models, they said:
Under current conditions, EHR adoption will reach its maximum market share in 2024 in the small practice setting.
The promise of improved care quality and cost control has prompted a call for universal EHR adoption by 2014. The EHR products now available are unlikely to achieve full diffusion in a critical market segment within the time frame being targeted by policy makers.
Definitely an article worth checking out. It’s great to see the authors put some real math and science behind their predictions instead of just wishful thinking like many vendors are doing.
I, for one, think even 2024 might be too optimistic :-).